Market Update: Bitcoin, LUNA and ASIC Prices

Published: Tue, 05/10/22

May 10, 2022
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What Bitcoin's selloff means for ASIC prices

Wow, what a week so far!

 

Bitcoin suffered a 15% correction Monday as caused by selloffs in equity markets and the unwinding of a massive Bitcoin allocation by the Luna Guard Foundation (LFG), an altcoin using Bitcoin as a backstop for its token project.

 

For miners, ASIC prices are the asset to watch coming out of yesterday’s chaos. ASICs are closely tied to Bitcoin’s price and often trade with a two-four week lag.

 

Over the last few months, ASIC prices were arguably overheated after 2021’s second price pump to $69,000. Since then, prices have corrected downward by nearly 50% in some cases. The price per TH is about $20 off its December high of $110 per TH for high end efficiency miners such as the S19 series (under 38 J/TH), according to Hashrate Index.

 

ASICs are getting cheaper and could be at a more affordable price for many miners in the next few weeks. Machine ROI is the best metric to track going forward, which shows about a 20-24 month ROI period per machine at current machine prices, Bitcoin price and network difficulty. If miners are looking to allocate capital toward new machines, these are the three metrics to watch over the coming weeks.

 

- Will Foxley

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin cratered yesterday alongside equities. Its now down some $16,000 from April highs and over 50% since November's all time high of $69,000. Analysts and on-chain data points to general sentiment changes in the larger financial markets and the selloff of a $1.5 billion Bitcoin position by the LFG as catalysts for the swing.

Data Source: Coin Metrics

ASIC Prices (J/TH)

ASIC prices have continued to swing downward since December across all efficiency types. Miners should expect a 20-24 month ROI period under most conditions. Its likely a drop in machine prices in the coming weeks can reduce the ROI period, however.

Data Source: Hashrate Index

Machine ROI

Machine ROI is a measurement of the time to payoff an ASIC from purchase. ROI fell during April, but is expected to rise during May until ASIC prices respond to Bitcoin's price drop.

Data Source: Compass Marketplace

Hashprice/ Hashrevenue

Hashprice and hashrevenue give relative measurements of Bitcoin production in USD and Satoshis. With yesterday's Bitcoin losses, hashprice has fallen below $0.15 for the first time in over a year.

Source: Coin Metrics

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